Wednesday, September 13, 2017

UPDATE

NEW MATERIAL AND SITE COMING SOON. STAY TUNED IF ANYONE IS STILL THERE. ETA - 30 DAYS OR SO.

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Thursday, March 6, 2014

Hello

Sorry for being absent, but life calls and I just have had a lot of competing priorities. I seem to trade less and less and that seems to be the best strategy these days.

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Sunday, March 31, 2013

A few ideas

So, I've been absent for a while and I think it's both a busy schedule and when the market enters this area, I find it hard to find good content. I have to say first, that this market is in a strange area for the following reasons. Emerging markets are not trading at all time highs, except for SE Asia, interest rates are still on the floor, the job market still stinks, material stocks are getting killed, and apple is almost half of where it was, yet the S&P is at an all time high. An all time high!

I don't trust the market and I think the only thing keeping us up is the fact that the shorts have no story that sticks. Cyprus was week and the Euro story is too old. Let there be some political upheaval and some unexpected financial shock, and this market will show it's ugly side.

I'm hedging some and getting a little light on some things. Another thing, still waiting on ARNA. I tell you, the establishment really is against this company. All the while VVUS trades above 2 dollars while they give the product away.

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Sunday, December 23, 2012

Headlines and the media

Have you noticed that we haven't heard much about the problems in Europe. That's because the media can only run with one market scare tactic at a time. Running with more than one isn't effective, as the populous can only focus on one at a time. When we try to focus on more than one, it isn't effective.

So we will dwell on the Fiscal If until it is no longer effective and then probably back to the Euro.

So I made a few moves here and there, but nothing dramatic. I've been hoping to take advantage of any sell off or tax loss selling, but haven't made any big moves. Over the past couple of weeks cashed in on BAC (big win), CSCO, and a little ARNA (big win). I still have exposure to CSCO and ARNA. I took a little NVTL (painful) off the table and added to my CLF and FCX.

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Sunday, December 16, 2012

The fiscal -give me a break- cliff

I'm tired of hearing about this cliff that we are about to go over. The talking heads have to have something to talk about and something to strike fear in the hearts of retail investors. That's how they keep you tuned in. Anyway, I'm on the lookout for new investment opportunities, but the old ones are still good to go.

The next month or so should be interesting for ARNA, as we should start to hear from the DEA and the EU. I also think it is becoming apparent that Europe is not about to fall off their cliff either. The nearly 60 million shares short could be in trouble.

The market is still tricky right now, as there seems to be a potential negative headline around every corner. Assuming the #@*&! cliff doesn't blow up in our faces, I think the S&P makes a new high soon. Who knows where it goes from there. This fourth quarter should be interesting, as I believe our coal and ore stocks won't have the devastating news most short sellers have been predicting.

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Sunday, December 9, 2012

What's new with the market

I've been away for a while and when I get back what do I see, the same old thing. The market moving up and down in no discernible direction. A few thoughts, I wonder how the VVUS backers feel now that the company is offering FREE trials? Have you noticed the short interest in ARNA is at an all time high, 61 million shares on 15 Nov. I guess they're in it until the end.

I'm hearing a lot about insider trading and people actually being accused of it. Throw them all in jail first and sort it out later.

The action in AAPL has been crazy. I noticed one day it traded to 518 before rebounding to almost 550. Something has to be done about that situation and it's effect on the NASDAQ.

I added some more INTC to my core portfolio under 20. Recall I lightened up a bit around 28 months ago. Other than that, I'm just sitting back trying not to pay too much attention to the every day drama and let the opportunities come to me when they will.

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Sunday, November 4, 2012

Back and forth we go in the market

Another Friday and another dive in the market. So what else is new? I read an interesting article that some bank is being sued by the government for trading commodities just to affect change in other prices. I thought that sort of thing was legal, as it goes on every day. Anyway, what else.

Coal and ore stocks have had good news, with the exception of CLF and I think traders might be catching on that the bottom has been put in with those stocks. I think we stand to do quite well in that space over the next year, especially when you consider the short interest has been building in those stocks while they were at the bottom!

I hate to beat a dead horse, but look at VVUS. Reality has finally set in with that company. This should be an interesting week with FTR, JRCC, ARNA, and VVUS reporting.

Well, I'll be on vacation a while, but will try to get back this week and post after the four companies mentioned here report.

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Sunday, October 21, 2012

A few observations

So this past Friday was pretty bad, but Fridays have been bad lately and this past Friday was an options expiration day. Big deal. If you need further proof that the market is crooked, then look at what continues to happen with VVUS. They got news that they probably won't get approved in Europe and the stock wasn't cut in half. In addition, we've seen no sales data yet, but bloggers and traders keep the shares propped up. It's like a case study in dubious market behavior. Oh well, at least we know and we aren't part of the clueless masses.

This market continues to confuse and interest me, as while the S&P is near it's high even with a questionable economy, resource stocks have yet to join the party. I wonder what happens if they take off. Does the S&P go to 1600? I'm still uncertain whether or not we have lift off on our coal and ore stocks. They're up nicely lately, but we'll see.

Although this is late, there's the matter of PCS and it's place in the MP, it was removed about 2 weeks ago at about 12 1/2. Actually a little higher. Right on the news/rumor that it was being bought. That's always the best option. Sale on that news right away and don't wait for traders to move it around in ways that make no sense. Sorry I haven't kept up with the MP moves, but it's just me these days and I get here as often as I can. So we've sold HIG and PCS from the MP for nice gains (I think that's it). Those gains should offset losses we've suffered in many of the other stocks!

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Sunday, October 7, 2012

We are in the funk again

The market is doing that schizophrenic dance again, up down, up, down, for no real reason. That's when it's best to just sit back and relax. In case you hadn't notice, short interest in some of our stocks like ANR, ACI, FTR, and of course ARNA is sky high. I'm actually pretty encouraged because with all the continued shorting, these stocks have definitely bottomed and are showing signs of life. When this thing gets turned around, it's going to be a barn burner.

I've started to look into an old name, DNDN, trading down around 4.5 it looks like it could be a bargain. They've had trouble in the past, but they may be getting things turned around enough where a legit company might think about taking them out. More to come on that at a later date.

An update on NVTL. I'm still holding and still perplexed by how low this company trades. They've got about $425 million in sales, $50 million in cash, and a market cap of about 63 million. Crazy. Still looking at that situation.

The bargain shopper in me can't help but look at HPQ. That price is starting to look very enticing. I'll let you know when it looks delicious.

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Sunday, September 23, 2012

What should we expect going forward in the market?

Who knows? I've been asking myself this question - is this the beginning of a beautiful thing, or a head fake? This market is very tricky. The world economic situation is uncertain, to say the least, but the S&P is high. Jobs are hard to come by and housing is still in the dump, yet the market has blown it off. Like I said, this new market of the last 10 years has little to do with fundamentals.

We've made good money on our coal and ore positions. To be fair, we have picked some dogs too. Our solar stocks are really in the dump. The slowdown in Europe and to a lesser extent, China, has really impacted solar, as Europe drove a lot of the demand. I've temporarily unloaded my SOL and put the money in ANR earlier this month. I'll buy SOL back sometime in Oct after my 30 day wash sale period, as I still believe it's a good buy down here.

As far as ARNA, what a job hedge funds and other speculators are doing on the stock. It's clear now they were wrong going with VVUS. VVUS got approved, but it's been a disaster since then. If ARNA had said they didn't believe they would get approval in Europe, the stock would have been cut in half, yet VVUS loses a couple of points. ARNA is a great long term buy and I'm still holding plenty. I would stay away from the options, as there is way too much manipulation happening there.

So, I'm holding on to my positions and riding out the volatility. Looking for some new names. Here's something to think about. The bears and shorts are beating the war drums. China has promised $150 bils and we got QE3. Eventually that money will start to find its way through the system and stocks highly correlated to the economy will attract more than their fair share of attention.

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The Vix

About This Blog

Where we rant and rave about the market and of course give our opinions on stocks we love or hate. We're not advisors and urge you to conduct your own due diligence.

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