Thursday, September 16, 2010

Arena in focus UPDATED

Here's my 2 cents on the matter at hand today. Arena (NASDAQ: ARNA) goes before the advisory board today looking for the nod. Be advised, that's only another step in the process, as they don't go before the FDA panel until next month on the 22nd.

Regardless of what happens, I think the stock probably sells off because the vote is probably going to be close, either way. Maybe the stock doesn't sell off, but I see no real upside when everyone is talking about it and it's in the sites of traders (short traders to be exact). The short interest was/is enormous. The big show that's gone on this week is just that, a big show. I'm not too concerned since close vote or not, the FDA vote is what matters.

We'll see what happens, but I'm waiting for the actual day that matters most for both VVUS and ARNA 22 October. Will update later.

So the vote was 5-9 against. I'm a bit surprised. I thought ARNA would get somewhere around 7 or 8 votes in favor. The FDA does really favor large companies, as many large companies get the ok for drugs with all sorts of problems.

The next big moment is in October. It's looking more and more like the FDA might ask for more data and more time when they meet in October. We still don't think either companies gets rejected outright.

By the way, expect a crazy, crazy day in this stock. There are massive options out on this stock, in fact if everyone exercised their options tomorrow, there wouldn't be enough stock to cover the transactions without buying and selling the same shares (all of the shares outstanding) more than once. Yes, the stock market has become a casino.

Okay, I see trades at $2.25 at 5:15PM EST.


Tuesday, September 14, 2010

Arena was body slammed today

I woke up a little early to day and to my surprised found Arena (NASDAQ: ARNA) getting hammered. I was surprised that it took until 2 days before the advisory board meets to happen. I had been waiting on some crooked business in that stock for the past 2 to 3 weeks.

The news that came out was nothing new and by the way, the bits and pieces that were made public by reporters and analysts, were about 3 sentences from a document that's 270 pages long.

Either way, I'm not saying the board is going to recommend or not. We're long both VVUS and ARNA, as we believe one or both get the OK.

The actually decision for both isn't until October. Stay tuned.


Now people see and regret

For those who didn't see the poll on investor confidence, here it is. What a surprise, people think the market is rigged and don't want to play.

On the same day people are asking if regulators went to far in creating a nearly all electronic market, that story is here. The SEC was only asleep at the wheel, this monster was created by those who stood to gain the most. You know who you are.

I'll leave it at that, but something needs to be done if we're going to bring back the ma and pa investor.


Tuesday, September 7, 2010

Up and down, round and round

And we go nowhere. As soon as we get up over 1100 on the S&P, down we go. This time the spin was, European banks. First AP and CNBC start running whatever story the establishment wants, then Bloomberg picks it up, then it becomes reality and down we go. When the S&P gets down to around 1040, the same folks find a reason to buy.

Use this to your advantage, if you still can. When the market falls down under about 1050, pick up the high yielding stocks and hold on to those puppies. I say if you still can because I think people are catching on. Now I keep reading that yields are 'crazy' high and a better deal than bonds. Oh really! Our readers have known this for some time.

The market is currently ruled by speculators, but we can still make good coin. A 6-7% yield is great, especially when you consider banks are paying nothing and the 10 yr is yielding about 2.5% right now. When the rest of the intelligent world realizes this, those stocks are going to tack on 20, 30, 40%.


The Vix

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Where we rant and rave about the market and of course give our opinions on stocks we love or hate. We're not advisors and urge you to conduct your own due diligence.

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