Sunday, July 22, 2012

A few thoughts on a few items

So the obesity wars continue. In case you weren't able to figure it out, ARNA won. I should remind you that I was never an OREX fan and while I always thought both ARNA and VVUS would both be approved, the VVUS story is a disaster.

I won't go in to all the details, as I don't feel like spending the time, but women have to get on the pill and be tested monthly for a 'bun in the oven', special certified mail order pharmacies, and the company itself said they plan a slow roll out using some sales force from some company. I expect big things from ARNA over the next year. Enough said.

So the drama in coal continues. I'm still a believer. Now we just need to light a match under the market with talk of a QE3. I say that because some people still think the fundamentals of supply and demand still dictate prices. I hate to break it to you, but that is only part of it. Our markets were sold to speculators about 10 years ago and they have more to say about the prices in capital markets than economics. Remember when oil was at $140 and fertilizer and coal and wheat and whatever else was through the roof. That had very little to do with supply and demand and everything to do with speculators running up prices. This will happen again.

By the way, CLF, VALE, and FCX look good and they have hefty dividends still in place. VALE seems like a pretty safe bet down here especially - possibly a good entry for the long run.

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Sunday, July 15, 2012

Expect 3 crazy weeks

Our coal companies, ACI, ANR, and JRCC are reporting over the next 3 weeks and we should get a better indication what there balance sheets look like and what demand looks like in the sector. I'm really curious to see what FTR has to say, as the shorts show no real signs of letting up. I do think we are one really good story away from that stock taking off. With a quarter billion shares short it's like pouring gas on the floor and then smoking.

Now to the big story, the VVUS and ARNA saga. Like most of my readers know, I sold my VVUS around 25 and put the proceeds into ARNA pre FDA decision. That turned out well. I also believe that the VVUS FDA decision won't be as positive as the ARNA decision. What I mean is there may be restrictions or a postponement which would be a disaster for VVUS and great for ARNA.

Stay tuned

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The Vix

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Where we rant and rave about the market and of course give our opinions on stocks we love or hate. We're not advisors and urge you to conduct your own due diligence.

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