Sunday, October 21, 2012

A few observations

So this past Friday was pretty bad, but Fridays have been bad lately and this past Friday was an options expiration day. Big deal. If you need further proof that the market is crooked, then look at what continues to happen with VVUS. They got news that they probably won't get approved in Europe and the stock wasn't cut in half. In addition, we've seen no sales data yet, but bloggers and traders keep the shares propped up. It's like a case study in dubious market behavior. Oh well, at least we know and we aren't part of the clueless masses.

This market continues to confuse and interest me, as while the S&P is near it's high even with a questionable economy, resource stocks have yet to join the party. I wonder what happens if they take off. Does the S&P go to 1600? I'm still uncertain whether or not we have lift off on our coal and ore stocks. They're up nicely lately, but we'll see.

Although this is late, there's the matter of PCS and it's place in the MP, it was removed about 2 weeks ago at about 12 1/2. Actually a little higher. Right on the news/rumor that it was being bought. That's always the best option. Sale on that news right away and don't wait for traders to move it around in ways that make no sense. Sorry I haven't kept up with the MP moves, but it's just me these days and I get here as often as I can. So we've sold HIG and PCS from the MP for nice gains (I think that's it). Those gains should offset losses we've suffered in many of the other stocks!

4 comments:

Anonymous October 24, 2012 at 12:26 AM  

Hi Paper,

I've been following SOL for over a year now and really like it's potential. I traded it around this time last year and have started to look at it more closely again. With the upcoming election solar energy in general has been a big topic. Do you think that in the event of an Obama win we could finally see a breakout? Also, do you forsee any catalysts in the near future that might finally get it going? It's really been flying under the radar for a good amount of time now. Lastly Great call on JRCC as well as a spot on analysis of macro events leading to the runup!

Best,

E

Daniel October 24, 2012 at 12:24 PM  

Papergains,
JRCC has popped. Do you think they have a little more pop in them heading into earnings and beyond, or is it time to sell?

PaperGains October 24, 2012 at 8:54 PM  

E,

I think the entire solar industry is being held back by a multitude of reasons, slowdown in China, problems in Europe, Europe cutting solar subsidies to solar, housing slowdown in the US, slowdown in capital investment throughout the world, solar being politicized...

I think we're going to have to wait longer than I had originally anticipated before any solar company gets going.

I do believe the catalyst might be M&A in the industry, as there are far too many players.

Thanks for your comment.

PG

PaperGains October 24, 2012 at 9:01 PM  

Daniel,

Timely comment on JRCC. We were in to a really nice move up today, then someone pushed us off a cliff. When I bought JRCC, I thought I'd hold until it was over 10, then re-evaluate. It's still so cheap. I'm less a trader and more an investor, so I'm inclined to hold until I see something that resembles a fair price.

I realize the run up has been big and when that happens we get days like today when the price collapses, seemingly for no reason. I'll ride out the volatility.

I expect with most of my economic plays, I won't make any big decisions until the economy is on firm ground and people start to pile back in to the usual names.

Thanks for your comment.

PG

The Vix

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Where we rant and rave about the market and of course give our opinions on stocks we love or hate. We're not advisors and urge you to conduct your own due diligence.

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