Sunday, November 4, 2012

Back and forth we go in the market

Another Friday and another dive in the market. So what else is new? I read an interesting article that some bank is being sued by the government for trading commodities just to affect change in other prices. I thought that sort of thing was legal, as it goes on every day. Anyway, what else.

Coal and ore stocks have had good news, with the exception of CLF and I think traders might be catching on that the bottom has been put in with those stocks. I think we stand to do quite well in that space over the next year, especially when you consider the short interest has been building in those stocks while they were at the bottom!

I hate to beat a dead horse, but look at VVUS. Reality has finally set in with that company. This should be an interesting week with FTR, JRCC, ARNA, and VVUS reporting.

Well, I'll be on vacation a while, but will try to get back this week and post after the four companies mentioned here report.

8 comments:

Daniel November 5, 2012 at 5:26 PM  

Dear Papergains,
What are your thoughts on dendreon now post-earnings? Enjoy your vacation!

PaperGains November 5, 2012 at 10:05 PM  

Daniel,

DNDN has done some things right, although they've taken so long that others are catching up. They had some real leadership problems. If they can right the ship and work with good partners, it will come around. The stock is worth a nibble in here, I think.

Thanks for comment.

PG

Leo November 9, 2012 at 12:13 PM  

Hello PaperGains,

NVTL and JRCC dropped so much these days. Is it still a good hold? NVTL Q3 financial reporting seems so ugly.....

Regards,
Leo

Anonymous November 9, 2012 at 3:47 PM  

Hi Paper,

I was wondering what your thoughts on Obama's re-election relating to coal were. More specifically I was interested in the effect on JRCC. Do you think that the initial runup that we saw in coal was more due to speculation that Romney might win or due to overly expensive natural gas prices? I'm waiting to see if JRCC pulls back to recent lows but I personally took the stance that this could be a huge buying opportunity on a little bit of an overraction to Obama's reelection. I liked your initial outlook on JRCC and I still think that expensive nat gas prices could make this move again sooner rather than later. Ill look forward to your thoughts.Thanks as always!

Best,

E

PaperGains November 9, 2012 at 6:17 PM  

Leo,

While the drop in JRCC doesn't concern me, as I viewed the quarter as positive, I am watching NVTL very closely. It looks like a longer situation than I had originally anticipated. It really is being priced like it's going out of business, but I don't believe that to be the case. Look at the CF statement and it looks like they were actually cash flow positive and they have no real debt to speak of.

Clearly, they need to get things turned around, but that $44 million dollar market cap seems ridiculous. I'm willing to wait just a while longer and I'm not one to stay on what I think is a sinking ship.

See my other response for more on JRCC.

Thanks for your comment.

PG

PaperGains November 9, 2012 at 6:27 PM  

E,

We got what I expected from coal stocks after the election - a tantrum. I doubt anyone trading these stocks really believed that Romney would win. The run up was the usually pointless volatility we see these days. The trend is changing in coal stocks. The smart short money has moved on. The die hards are trying to create their own reality and push the stocks around again. I don't believe it will stick this time, as fundamentals are changing and eventually no matter how much you try, the truth catches up to you (see VVUS). It's already a cold winter and China has shown signs of life.

By the way, I try not to get caught up in the day to day gyrations and the noise "they" put out there, as it can creep into the minds of even those of us who know better.

I develop a thesis and as long as it doesn't change, I stay the course. I was willing to put a lot out there and I'm not concerned.

Thanks for your comment.

PG

Daniel November 23, 2012 at 8:57 AM  

Papergains,
1st of all, a happy belated Thanksgiving to you and yours. Second of all, what are your thoughts on AAPL at these levels. It seems like it's more of a fear factor as well as mutual fund rebalancing that drove the price so low. Fundamentally, they seem to be the best company on the planet. What are your thoughts?

PaperGains November 25, 2012 at 9:22 PM  

Daniel,

I agree that AAPL is arguably the best company on the planet. These levels look a lot better than 700 plus. I could buy in here around 550 and I'm considering allocated some cash that way.

I'm considering ditching some of the stocks with less potential and taking advantage of the recent pull back.

I'll keep my readers informed.

Thanks for your comment.

PG

The Vix

About This Blog

Where we rant and rave about the market and of course give our opinions on stocks we love or hate. We're not advisors and urge you to conduct your own due diligence.

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