Sunday, December 23, 2012

Headlines and the media

Have you noticed that we haven't heard much about the problems in Europe. That's because the media can only run with one market scare tactic at a time. Running with more than one isn't effective, as the populous can only focus on one at a time. When we try to focus on more than one, it isn't effective.

So we will dwell on the Fiscal If until it is no longer effective and then probably back to the Euro.

So I made a few moves here and there, but nothing dramatic. I've been hoping to take advantage of any sell off or tax loss selling, but haven't made any big moves. Over the past couple of weeks cashed in on BAC (big win), CSCO, and a little ARNA (big win). I still have exposure to CSCO and ARNA. I took a little NVTL (painful) off the table and added to my CLF and FCX.

16 comments:

Daniel January 9, 2013 at 9:52 PM  

Papergains,
How are you? Haven't heard from you in a while. Just read an article from Cody Willard about how it's time to invest in clean tech once again. What are your thoughts on getting back into Solar, for example? Do you think it's a good time to get back in? Also, where do you see Aapl going following earnings? Thank you in advance.

PaperGains January 10, 2013 at 7:49 PM  

Daniel,

In the long run I like clean technology, solar in particular. They've had a big run lately and my motto is don't chase. I prefer to buy on a pull back (which could come any moment and not last long).

As far as AAPL goes, who knows. Traders have taken that thing over. I do believe we'll be looking back at this price in a year or so and wish we bought here.
That's just become a hard call with the crazy price swings.

Yeah, I've been gone a while, can't think of anything new to write about. Just the same old stuff going on, but different days.

Thanks for your comment.

PG

Leo January 15, 2013 at 1:42 PM  

Dear PG,

Regarding ARNA's recent rally, what's your projection of its price target for this year and the following several years?

Below is an article from SeekAlpha, talking about the price model of ARNA

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1113151-arena-a-share-price-model

I would like to hear your professional thoughts about that article. Is that reasonable?

Thanks,
Leo

PaperGains January 15, 2013 at 8:40 PM  

Leo,

I have no professional opinion, just an opinion. I did read that article, although I try not to read too many seeking alpha articles, as they are mostly noise. I can say that assuming most of his numbers are accurate, I think his price is low because small biotechs trade at much higher multiples than the PEs he projected.

With that typed, I really don't know where this thing is going, as speculators have ruled this thing. I can say that from this point on, I'm waiting for the squeeze and/or craziness to get going on the long side and when things get out of hand, I'll sell.

That may or may not help, but there it is.

Thanks for your comment.

PG

Anonymous January 18, 2013 at 10:12 PM  

Hi Paper,

I know you said that you were looking for some new ideas lately.

I was looking into Jaguar Mining and have been waiting to see where it goes in the next week.

Im kind of unsure on the fundamentals but like the price action.From the dd i've done so far I think it might have some room to run in the coming weeks/months.

I was wondering if you'd be willing to take a look and give me your opinion on the trade.

Again I was just thinking about swing trading it short and think it's setting up similarly to the PAL trade I mentioned a couple weeks ago.

As always Thanks in advance for your advice which is always insightful!

My Best,

E

Gozo Farmhouse Vacations Guestbook January 22, 2013 at 10:45 AM  

Hi,

What do you think of the recent Arena developments regarding its European approval?

PaperGains January 22, 2013 at 8:29 PM  

E,

You really are a risk taker! PAL is in a decent industry, but very small and very risky. It could be a double in a year, but so could FCX. Thing with FCX is you collect a dividend while waiting. With that typed, I've played names like that over the years, but it's always with long term options.

Some of those small miners and natural resource companies languish for years. I usually prefer the larger miners because the dish out dividends and you still stand to get a double or more when times are good.

I hope that helps.

Thanks for your comment.

PG

PaperGains January 22, 2013 at 8:31 PM  

Gozo,

The action today in ARNA was harsh, but doesn't concern me. They'll get approval in the EU soon enough. This is going to be their year and all the shorts and bashers will finally have to give up.

Thanks for your comment.

PG

Anonymous January 23, 2013 at 6:05 PM  

Hi PG,

Do you see the recent tumble today in AAPL as an extremely good buying opportunity here? Doesn't seem like fundamentals have changed dramatically, but rather overly optimistic wall street estimates and investor overreaction.

Thanks,
AC

PaperGains January 23, 2013 at 7:23 PM  

AC,

This isn't the first time this has happened. It'll pull back and may present a good buying opportunity. I still think that over the long run, today's price is cheap. It's the most innovative consumer electronics company in the history of this country and hasn't slowed up. It just needs to start paying a better dividend.

I've been looking at the stock since about 550, but the volatility kept me on the sidelines. If it gets to 400, I'd pull the trigger quick fast.

Thanks for your comment.

PG

Leo March 4, 2013 at 5:52 PM  

Dear PaperGains,

Today ARNA's cc and price action (hit $7.85 at one time) are really weird. People are talking about why DEA still did not give "Go" message and it is actually over 45 days, and it is said that it is related 69 comments and DEA needs to give all of them clear reply...

As an investor of ARNA for 3 years, now I become a little worried. I would like to hear your comments.

Thanks,
Leo

PaperGains March 4, 2013 at 8:27 PM  

Leo,

I'm still not concerned. I'm ready to let the situation play out. I feel confident that this ends well for longs, and bad for shorts.

Thanks for the comment.

Avoid the noise.

PG

Anonymous March 27, 2013 at 11:07 PM  

Hi Paper,

JRCC has been getting close to it's 52 week low recently. I know that they missed earnings. Do you think that the continued drop in price has been an over reaction? I remember JRCC quickly returning 100% from these levels before the presidential election. Also, It seems like nat gas prices are starting to stabalize a little bit again but I'm not overly knowledgeble about the direct relationship to price. Thanks as always for your response!

My Best,

E

PaperGains March 29, 2013 at 12:24 PM  

E,

Coal and other natural resource stocks have become trading favorites. When that happens, it's hard to make sense of anything. There's been a disconnect between the price of nat gas and coal, as you are right, nat gas has moved up nicely, but we'll see if it holds. Most coal stocks were taken back down, as were other miners.

In my opinion, we'll have to wait until nat gas stabilizes at these higher prices, traders move on, supply tightens, and/or there's some M&A activity.

I'm willing to wait it out, as I have significant exposure to coal and ore.

In today's market, patience is required. Coal and ore aren't going away and if I have to hold a position 3 years to see 2 or 3 times my money, I'm happy to do that. There was a time when that type of return was seen as great.

Thanks for your comment, and for waking me up. I need to post something!

PG

Anonymous March 30, 2013 at 4:37 AM  

Hi Paper,

Thanks for your response on JRCC it was insightful as always. I'll be looking forward to your next post.

I meant to ask your opinion on the recent news and volitility in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. It seems like there is a lot of speculation going on right now. In the research I've done I think that there are at least two events that could move the price somewhat significantly short term. A turn around in earnings is one as well as positive news regarding the GSE's lawsuits against the big banks which could be a game changer for them.

Obviously trading the GSE's is incredibly speculative but it seems like some of these special situation trades only come around every once in a while. I'd really like to get your perspective on their current situation. Thanks!

Best,

E

PaperGains March 31, 2013 at 7:31 PM  

E,

You are a big risk taker. I'm known to take some risks here and there, but I have to admit that I left those two names alone, as I had/have no way of navigating through the legal mine field.

I'd have to say that the volatility in those two stocks is just that, volatility. Traders love stocks like that - daily rumors/news, low price, and billions of shares outstanding. If you're a day trader, that's where the action is.

Thanks for your comment.

PG

The Vix

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