Sunday, December 16, 2012

The fiscal -give me a break- cliff

I'm tired of hearing about this cliff that we are about to go over. The talking heads have to have something to talk about and something to strike fear in the hearts of retail investors. That's how they keep you tuned in. Anyway, I'm on the lookout for new investment opportunities, but the old ones are still good to go.

The next month or so should be interesting for ARNA, as we should start to hear from the DEA and the EU. I also think it is becoming apparent that Europe is not about to fall off their cliff either. The nearly 60 million shares short could be in trouble.

The market is still tricky right now, as there seems to be a potential negative headline around every corner. Assuming the #@*&! cliff doesn't blow up in our faces, I think the S&P makes a new high soon. Who knows where it goes from there. This fourth quarter should be interesting, as I believe our coal and ore stocks won't have the devastating news most short sellers have been predicting.

4 comments:

Anonymous December 17, 2012 at 12:07 AM  

Hi Paper,

SOL had an interesting week this week. I was wondering if you thought that the big sale they made might be a glimpse of future bigger deals o come. I have been following SOL for a while now and was kind of waiting for a catlyst to get it moving. I was thinking that Obama's reelection might have been a precursor of good things to come for the industry. Thanks!

Best,

E

PaperGains December 18, 2012 at 7:26 PM  

E,

That sector has been beaten up pretty bad and I've been waiting to see some strategic moves (M&A, asset sales, partnering, bankruptcies, etc.) I think anything else will just inch solar companies forward. We've seen some, but more is needed. So, in short, I think we will have to wait a while, but I hope the recent news is an indicator of activity heating up in the future.

Thanks for your comment.

PG

Anonymous December 20, 2012 at 9:10 PM  

Hi Paper,

I wanted to share a trade idea that I really like as of today. I have been following PAL for the last three years. It closed on a 52week low at 1.19 today and I think at the very least sets up nicely for a short term opportunity. Although the fundamentals are weak I think PAL might eventually see a trend reversal from these levels in the same way that some commodities have in the past month. Also I wanted to mention that PAL has bounced off of a low in this rnge about six times now. I'd love to get your opinion on the trade. Thanks!

Best,

E

PaperGains December 23, 2012 at 8:00 PM  

E,

PAL has a pretty questionable balance sheet. Reminds me of PCX. It may go much higher if metal prices move higher, or might go bust. Companies like that I might or might not get into, but when I do, it's usually a little and almost always through long dated calls.

Thanks for your comment.

PG

The Vix

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Where we rant and rave about the market and of course give our opinions on stocks we love or hate. We're not advisors and urge you to conduct your own due diligence.

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