Sunday, March 31, 2013

A few ideas

So, I've been absent for a while and I think it's both a busy schedule and when the market enters this area, I find it hard to find good content. I have to say first, that this market is in a strange area for the following reasons. Emerging markets are not trading at all time highs, except for SE Asia, interest rates are still on the floor, the job market still stinks, material stocks are getting killed, and apple is almost half of where it was, yet the S&P is at an all time high. An all time high!

I don't trust the market and I think the only thing keeping us up is the fact that the shorts have no story that sticks. Cyprus was week and the Euro story is too old. Let there be some political upheaval and some unexpected financial shock, and this market will show it's ugly side.

I'm hedging some and getting a little light on some things. Another thing, still waiting on ARNA. I tell you, the establishment really is against this company. All the while VVUS trades above 2 dollars while they give the product away.

22 comments:

Daniel April 22, 2013 at 6:08 AM  

Hi papergains,
I know you said you were a buyer of apple if it hit $400. Does that mean you are a buyer now?

PaperGains April 22, 2013 at 8:22 PM  

Daniel,

I'm not buying anything now. The market is due for a good thrashing. I do like AAPL at this level, but I don't like the market.

Thanks for your comment.

PG

Anonymous April 24, 2013 at 9:03 PM  

Hi paper,

I completely agree with your last post and response to the last comment. I don't believe this rally for a minute either.

With that being said I'm always interested in speculative and special situation opportunities provided by an irrational market.

I was wondering if NUGT has come to your attention lately. It seems like a rebound in gold might really make it take off. Also based on technicals alone imo it seems like it's setting up pretty nicely to move in the coming couple of weeks. I was wondering what your opinion on a rebound in gold/ the trade was. Like most of the trade ideas that I post it's pretty risky! Also, I thought that the volume pattern might be signifying somewhat of a safe entry point.

Thanks as always for your analysis. I'll look forward to your reply!

Best,

E

PaperGains April 26, 2013 at 9:12 PM  

E,

While gold may move higher later this year, that etf may have seen it`s best days already. Most of those highly leveraged etfs lose value over time just because. Those things need crazy volatility in the short run which means your timing must be just right.

When you know gold is about to move higher soon, then there's the opportunity. The high volume could mean anything, new longs, short covering, hedging other positions, etc. This market is deceitful, so I'd rather buy stock in a company with gold exposure.

Thanks for your comment.

pg

Daniel June 8, 2013 at 10:32 PM  

PAPERGAINS,
Can we consider this blog dead? I find myself checking back here every so often to see if you posted anything. You seem to be posting once every 6 months now. I miss the papergains of old. The papergains that recommended stocks like HGSI and ARNA. What happened to him?

PaperGains June 9, 2013 at 8:47 PM  

Busy times, just haven't been too motivated lately.

Gozo Farmhouse Vacations Guestbook June 14, 2013 at 12:55 PM  

Hi Papergains,

Agree that there's not much to be attracted to in this market except for high volatility.

Regarding ARNA, what do you think of its price action? Do you think that since its on the market there's data suggesting poor takeup?

PaperGains June 14, 2013 at 10:48 PM  

Gozo,

I don't think you can read anything into the market price action on most stocks. That's the sad truth. Most volatile stocks are driven by computers, options expiration, some other thing. Who really knows who's behind the curtain controlling things. I'm still betting this drug ends up being a blockbuster.

Thanks for your comment.

PG

Anonymous June 18, 2013 at 12:01 AM  

Hey Paper,

I know that I already mentioned this trade. I wanted to throw some of my ideas out there again more for the sake of conversation than anything. In looking more into FNMA I can't help making a comparison to LVS in 09. I think that there's a lot of potential for it to see $7 or more in the coming months. Obviously it's rediculously speculative but it's been hard for me not to add at these levels. I just think that theres a lot of unbiased fear surrounding it right now and to be honest I've been adding as much as I can on dips recently.

I think that the fact that they're able to generate such an absurd amount of cash means that it might not be going anywhere. I can't see the government winding it down when theres nothing to replace it with. If you google the word conservatorship it means a temporary surrendering and not long term. IMO the recent 3 weeks of trading might be a sign that smart money is buying at these levels and might let it run once some positions have been established. But if we ever see a day where it is released from conservatorship FNMA is in a financial position where it should be trading way above the 10 or even 15 dollar range based on it's earnings. If you find the time to do a little digging into the story let me know what you think. I know that it's something that you would normally stay away from so I don't want to waste your own time. But, I think that you have a unique perspective on the markets and would value your thoughts! I'm looking into a couple other trades at the moment and will post again if I find anything that I think youd be interested in that has a little lower risk profile. Thanks as always!

Best,

E

Anonymous August 19, 2013 at 11:42 PM  

Hi Paper,

Just checking in to see how your doing. I hope everythings going well with you.

It seems like the market might be finally due for a correction. It looks like the fed might finally be in a position to tighten up rates here.

Your timing in response to my comment on NUGT a couple months ago was spot on. I'm thinking about cautiously accumulating here but am waiting to see how the reverse split plays out. It looks like gold is finally picking up steam althogh I'm unsure wether mining stocks will follow.

I was wondering if you had anything on your radar that you've been looking at recently?

I know that you haven't been overly motivated lately and I agree that there hasn't been much i've been exited about either other than a few speculative trades here and there.

If I come across any trade ideas I'll continue to post them here. I have to say that out of all of the blogs that I follow your market analysis and views have always been reliable and educational for me. If you found the time to shoot off a quick post I would love to hear your current views on the market!!

My Best,

E

PaperGains August 21, 2013 at 7:47 PM  

E,

Yes, it's been a while since I've been here. Thanks for commenting, as I should post something real soon.

I have to say that I've become pretty suspicious of all but a handful of ETFs. I think SPY and similar are good to go, but the others may or may not behave as expected. Notice how they are always the instruments that behave the most erratic when the markets act bad. ETFs like NUGT are subject to crazy moves in commodities and whatever might be going on behind the ETF curtain.

As far as what I'm doing, I'm waiting. I've been waiting for a little while now, but I'm patient. I have to admit, this rally is supernatural and I'm not sure when the devil behind the rally gets exercised, but when it does, it won't be pretty.

I'll continue to wait and buy at a deep discount. Although, I have started to accumulated SQM, couldn't help it.

Thanks for your comment.

PG

Anonymous August 26, 2013 at 6:12 PM  

Hi Paper,

I looked at SQM. It looks like a great value play. I've been mostly in cash at the moment I'll probably start adding here and there.

I'm sure that it's already on your radar but bulk shippers are finally starting to show signs of life after months of inactivity.

DRYS really mnoved in the past couple trading days on huge volume. I haven't even been trading them though as I just don't trust this market and am especially cautious chasing anything that has already moved right now.

I know that the recent Moodys upgrade has people talking about a rally in coal. I'm on the sidelines there too waiting to see if it's just a head fake or starts looking like the real thing.

I'll keep you posted if I see anything with a decent risk/reward profile.

Best

E

PaperGains August 27, 2013 at 6:24 PM  

E,

You like, I'm sitting on a lot of cash, waiting for the pull back. Those shippers are another high beta group, highly correlated to commodities like coal and ore. All of those groups should move together, although I've noticed in the past that since the 2008 crash they don't move as much as the commodities. I'd rather go right to stocks that are closest to the source of the heat, like the commodity stocks. Stocks further away like the shippers and heavy equipment makers are a little further away.

I hope we get this sell off going so we pick up some good names.

Thanks for your comment.

PG

Anonymous September 27, 2013 at 4:02 AM  

Hi Paper,

It's been frustrating at the moment being in cash. I keep waiting for a correction and am kicking myself a little bit for not getting into names like DRYS and EGLE at the end of August. At the same time I think patience will pay off in the long run and there will be a lot of opportunities in the event of a correction for those in position to buy!

I wanted to throw out a trade idea that I think you'll like. I know that you mentioned you were acumulating SQM in the 20's. I really liked the trade especially due to their limited exposure to potash. I'd love to get your opinion on PGRX. Obviously it's much more speculative but I really like the risk/reward potential as a play on a potash turnaround.

Also, as a total lotto play take a look at NEWL. It seems like some of the shippers that almost went bankrupt still listed on the nasdaq are making big moves. The volume on these sub $1 dollar stocks is around the $10 to $15 MILLION dollar range. I think it might have potential similar to FREE. Again this is a total lotto play and not a serious trade reccomendation for anyone else reading my comment. If you get a chance to post i'd love to hear your comments on the market! Hope to hear from you soon!!

MY Best,

E


Daniel October 1, 2013 at 9:04 AM  

Paper,
Time to buy back ARNA?

-Daniel

PaperGains October 3, 2013 at 7:41 PM  

E, PGRX is an early stage company, so I see it the same way I might see an early stage biotech. I'd like at what's in the pipeline and the likelihood it pays off. NEWL is doing a reverse split which is almost never a good sign for a tiny company. Like you, I'm still sitting on a lot of cash. It's risk-off for me right now, and those two are riiiiisky, but that's your style.

Daniel, I told a friend not to fall in love with ARNA at this point. The short sellers and other critics show no sign of giving up. The easy money has been made there. I still hold a little and would only buy more if they really start to sell a lot of that dope. So far the numbers have just been ok.

Thanks for your comments.

PG

Anonymous October 9, 2013 at 2:42 AM  

Hi Paper,

I know that I've been posting a lot recently I've had a little extra time to research the market and have been putting in a lot of time on DD.

I'm getting into a trade that I thought might fit your risk profile. I'm somewhat confident with the DD that I did on this one and wanted to share it with you.

GSE Holdings ticker: GSE ....looks like it bottomed out and is kind of an under the radar trade. Institutional holdings along with insider holdings are really high. It seems like most insiders bought at slightly higher prices than where it's at now. The chart also looked good to me and it looks like increased volume might be right around the corner. I think that it has upside potential of at least 100% in the near term with low downside risk. Lastly I feel safe with the stability of the industry that they're in. This like DRYS is one of my lower risk trades over the past couple months.

I wanted to share the trade more for the sake of conversation than anything so don't wory if you don't get a chance to get back. But in the event that you can I'd love to get your opinion. Hope to hear from you soon!

Best,

E

PaperGains October 11, 2013 at 7:45 PM  

E,

I prefer GSE to some of the other high vol stocks you like. While I don't understand that business too much, I like these types of industrial companies. It's small, but looks cheap.

Thanks for your comment.

In the process of moving over the next month, so will be absent for a while. Not like I've posted a lot lately!

PG

Daniel December 2, 2013 at 8:41 PM  

Hey Paper,
What ever happened to your 2013 model portfolio? We really haven't heard anything about it. On second thought, we haven't really heard anything from you in almost a year. Is this blog still active?

Anonymous December 21, 2013 at 6:01 PM  

Hi Paper,

Haven't heard from you in a while. I know you said you were moving so I hope it went well! I had two trades that I wanted to share on the board.

The first trade is IVAN. It already moved up a good amount so if I end up trading it it will probably be pretty cautiously and on a longer time horizon. The stock used to trade at pretty high levels and I think it has recently seen it's bottom.Any good news coming out might be a catalyst to get it moving.

The second trade is MSTX. I don't ever trust analysts but the price targets on the stock are 3-4 times what it trades at now. I think that it's kind of flying under the radar right now and will get a significant run up just due to an increased presence in the news closer to it's news releases/scheduling dates. They have a good amount of cash right now on the balance sheet compared to the stock price.

I'm not sure if you'll like the IVAN trade but I think MSTX is definitely worth a look and I have been personally trying to buy here and there when I can.

If you have any new ideas or anything you like in the market I'd love to hear them! Happy Holiday's and I'll hope to hear from you soon.

Best,

E

Daniel February 4, 2014 at 11:54 AM  

What are your thoughts on Jrcc at .65?

Daniel March 6, 2014 at 11:48 AM  

One year anniversary post?

The Vix

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Where we rant and rave about the market and of course give our opinions on stocks we love or hate. We're not advisors and urge you to conduct your own due diligence.

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